← Premier League 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L Mason
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Chelsea win | 69% | 67% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.79 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 10% | 13% | 9.52 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.