← Premier League 2013-14 · Sun, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M Clattenburg
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Aston Villa win | 44% | 55% | 2.23 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.23 | fair |
| Stoke win | 26% | 20% | 3.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.