← Premier League 2013-14 · Sat, Mar 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: N Swarbrick
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Liverpool win | 73% | 70% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.60 | value: +7% |
| Cardiff win | 10% | 11% | 10.10 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.