← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 42% | 2.20 |
| FC Arouca win | 30% | 3.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| CD Tondela +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Omar Fayed · FC Arouca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bas Kuipers · FC Arouca |
| 41' | 🟨 | Cicero · CD Tondela |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rony Lopes · CD Tondela |
| 77' | ⚽ | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 81' | 🟨 | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
| 85' | ⚽ | Hyun-ju Lee · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 592.00 | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1544.65 | 1438.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.99 | 23.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 4.91 | 4.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -0.00 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.32 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.32 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 1.16 |