← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Goncalves
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto win | 75% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.00 |
| CD Santa Clara win | 10% | 9.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Porto −1.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| CD Santa Clara −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.60 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 0 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |