← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 16, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 45% | 2.05 |
| AVS win | 28% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| AVS −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Alonso · Moreirense FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Mateus Pivô · AVS |
| 39' | 🟨 | Roni · AVS |
| 73' | 🟨 | Yan Maranhão · Moreirense FC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Gustavo Mendonca · AVS |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 319.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1531.18 | 1418.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.43 | 60.51 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | 0.84 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.78 |
| league points | 42.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 35.60 |
| rest days | 4.80 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -1.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | -0.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 25.11 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.67 | -1.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.04 |