← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: H. Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Santa Clara win | 39% | 2.35 |
| CD Nacional win | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Santa Clara −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Witi · CD Santa Clara |
| 29' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 60' | 🟨 | João Aurélio · CD Nacional |
| 80' | 🟨 | Darlan · CD Santa Clara |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elias Manoel · CD Santa Clara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Santa Clara | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio de São Miguel |
| coach days | 1045.00 | 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1523.32 | 1464.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.26 | 22.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.00 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 9.20 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.64 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.65 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.07 |