← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, May 10, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca win | 37% | 2.50 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 36% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| GD Estoril Praia +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Figueiredo · FC Alverca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rhaldney · FC Alverca |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antef Tsoungui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 47' | ⚽ | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bastien Meupiyou · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Alverca | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |
| coach days | 282.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1483.35 | 1555.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.90 | -25.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | — |
| league points | 38.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.12 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.49 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 26.51 |
| state index | 0.12 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 1.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.68 |