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CD Tondela 2–0 Moreirense FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Baixinho

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Tondela win50%1.86
Draw27%3.40
Moreirense FC win23%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Moreirense FC −0.551%1.88
CD Tondela −0.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Makan Aïko · CD Tondela
29'🟨Alan · Moreirense FC
60'⚽Rony Lopes · CD Tondela
77'🟨Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC
90'🟨Jordan Siebatcheu · CD Tondela
90'🟨Cedric Teguia · Moreirense FC
90'🟥Maracás · Moreirense FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots10
3On target2
1Corners8
14Fouls9
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCD TondelaMoreirense FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.510.57
cards avg (last 5)4.002.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio João Cardoso
coach days314.00314.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.19
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-4.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.407.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.182.20
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.440.45
elo1420.631549.09
elo momentum (last 5)9.029.93
eye test v1-0.07-0.68
eye trend v1-0.000.39
first sub minute (last 10)54.4059.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
keeper form v10.730.74
league points25.0042.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.4080.00
possession avg (last 5)53.2045.60
rest days8.209.20
scorer concentration0.270.21
season ppg0.781.31
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.009.40
skill v10.14-0.39
solidity v1-0.33-0.64
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.20
squad age25.9926.96
state index-0.43-0.04
sterile dominance v10.580.23
threat rate (last 10)0.230.17
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.431.67
xg for avg (last 5)1.010.86