← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: R. Baixinho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 50% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.40 |
| Moreirense FC win | 23% | 4.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| CD Tondela −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Makan Aïko · CD Tondela |
| 29' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Rony Lopes · CD Tondela |
| 77' | 🟨 | Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Siebatcheu · CD Tondela |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cedric Teguia · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 314.00 | 314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1420.63 | 1549.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.02 | 9.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 25.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 8.20 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.33 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.99 | 26.96 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.67 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 0.86 |