← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 58% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.90 |
| FC Arouca win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Gil Vicente FC −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Agustín Moreira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 61' | ⚽ | Bas Kuipers · FC Arouca |
| 63' | ⚽ | Luís Esteves · Gil Vicente FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Taichi Fukui · FC Arouca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Héctor Hernández · Gil Vicente FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| coach days | 436.00 | 587.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1579.27 | 1524.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.61 | 1.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 50.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.99 | 9.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 25.14 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.15 |