← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, May 11, 07:15 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Vitória SC win | 56% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Vitória SC −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |