← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, May 3, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| CD Tondela win | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Casa Pia AC −0.25 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 49' | 🟨 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
| 55' | 🟥 | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 65' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Bebeto · CD Tondela |
| 70' | 🟨 | Maranhão · CD Tondela |
| 75' | 🟨 | Christian Marques · CD Tondela |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tiago Morais · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kevin Prieto · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | João Goulart |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 19 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | CD Tondela |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Iyad Mohamed · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jérémy Livolant · Casa Pia AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka · CD Tondela |
| coach days | 275.00 | 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1467.76 | 1407.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.73 | -13.78 |
| eye test v1 | -1.10 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 26.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | -0.02 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | -0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 26.07 |
| state index | -0.78 | -1.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.73 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.88 |