← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 2, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Silva
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 80% | 1.15 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.50 |
| FC Alverca win | 5% | 17.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca −2 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto −2 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under | 39% | 2.40 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Jakub Kiwior · FC Porto |
| 38' | 🟨 | Chiquinho · FC Alverca |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jan Bednarek · FC Porto |
| 52' | 🟨 | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 74' | 🟨 | Sandro Lima · FC Alverca |
| 77' | 🟨 | Figueiredo · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 335.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1878.38 | 1521.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.37 | 18.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| league points | 82.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 8.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.65 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.10 | 25.87 |
| state index | 1.12 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.33 |