← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 39% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| Moreirense FC win | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Caio · Moreirense FC |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 25' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 31' | 🟨 | Max Scholze · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Ianis Stoica · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 40' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Alonso · Moreirense FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fabiano Souza · Moreirense FC |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luís Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jefferson Encada · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| 🟨 |
| Gilberto Batista · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Otavio · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | ⚽ | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 305.00 | 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1550.86 | 1444.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.06 | -3.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 48.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | — |
| league points | 39.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 5.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | -0.32 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.61 | 26.94 |
| state index | -0.29 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.64 | 1.70 |