← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, May 2, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Torres
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 63% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.20 |
| AVS win | 15% | 6.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| AVS −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under | 40% | 2.35 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Filipe Soares · CD Nacional |
| 22' | ⚽ | Pedro Lima · AVS |
| 41' | 🟨 | Gabriel Veron · CD Nacional |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paulo Vitor · AVS |
| 55' | 🟨 | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 63' | ⚽ | Guilherme Neiva · AVS |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adriel · AVS |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟥 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days | 1036.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1478.46 | 1376.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.09 | 16.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 46.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 31.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 72.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.50 | 25.63 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -1.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.70 |