← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Apr 24, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: D. Rosa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca win | 46% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.40 |
| FC Arouca win | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.90 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
| 35' | 🟨 | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 49' | ⚽ | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 67' | 🟨 | Matías Rocha · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marko Milovanović · FC Alverca |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alfonso Trezza · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Alverca | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | FC Alverca Sports Complex |
| coach days | 266.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1474.28 | 1543.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.58 | 22.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.62 |
| league points | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.21 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 24.09 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.66 |