← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 26, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.25 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 11% | 8.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora +1.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| FC Porto +1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Kevin Höög Jansson · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
| 24' | 🟨 | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
| 37' | ⚽ | Deniz Gül · FC Porto |
| 79' | ⚽ | Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 82' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · FC Porto |
| 86' | 🟨 | Stefan Leković · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 89' | 🟨 | Sydney van Hooijdonk · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Costa · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 0 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CF Estrela da Amadora | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio José Gomes |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 299.00 | 329.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1440.76 | 1876.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.78 | -19.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 28.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.10 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| season ppg | 0.93 | 2.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.02 | 0.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 25.09 |
| state index | -0.32 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.84 |