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GD Estoril Praia 0–1 FC Famalicão

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 26, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Macedo

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão win54%1.71
Draw24%3.90
GD Estoril Praia win22%4.20

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão +0.554%1.75
GD Estoril Praia +0.546%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.57
Under40%2.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

46'🟨Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão
51'⚽ (pen)Justin De Haas · FC Famalicão
56'🟨Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots6
2On target6
9Corners4
19Fouls11
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGD Estoril PraiaFC Famalicão
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.730.69
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio António Coimbra da Mota
3.60
coach days664.00511.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.603.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.533.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.21
dominance (last 5)0.390.59
elo1550.501635.42
elo momentum (last 5)-30.4023.47
eye test v1-0.900.39
eye trend v1-0.180.27
first sub minute (last 10)58.4062.60
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.050.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.690.68
league points37.0048.00
league rank10.005.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet4.003.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8083.00
possession avg (last 5)53.2050.40
rest days5.806.79
scorer concentration0.320.13
season ppg1.231.60
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.804.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6012.40
skill v1-0.080.35
solidity v1-0.570.87
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.20
squad age26.5525.73
state index-0.580.39
sterile dominance v10.770.34
threat rate (last 10)0.190.22
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.600.77
xg for avg (last 5)0.831.37