← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Apr 25, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 37% | 2.45 |
| CD Tondela win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional +0 | 52% | 1.85 |
| CD Tondela +0 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.85 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 31' | ⚽ (og) | Brayan Medina · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tiago Manso · CD Tondela |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Makan Aïko · CD Tondela |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days |
| 298.00 |
| 1029.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1413.45 | 1463.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.71 | 9.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.10 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| league points | 21.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.48 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 25.17 |
| state index | -1.09 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 0.69 |