← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Apr 27, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: B. J. Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 19% | 4.75 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
| 31' | ⚽ | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pedro Rosas · Casa Pia AC |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daniel Figueira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonio Espigares · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 18 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| Gustavo Varela · Gil Vicente FC |
| coach days | 422.00 | 269.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1574.26 | 1473.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.49 | -27.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 46.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 34.60 |
| rest days | 8.99 | 4.05 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -2.07 |
| solidity v1 | 0.35 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 27.66 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -1.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.68 |