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Gil Vicente FC 2–1 Casa Pia AC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Apr 27, 07:15 PM UTC · ref: B. J. Costa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win55%1.68
Draw26%3.50
Casa Pia AC win19%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Casa Pia AC −0.7553%1.83
Gil Vicente FC −0.7547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC
31'⚽Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
45'🟨Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC
45'⚽ (pen)Cassiano · Casa Pia AC
63'🟨Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC
70'🟨Pedro Rosas · Casa Pia AC
73'⚽ (pen)Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
78'🟨André Geraldes · Casa Pia AC
89'🟨Daniel Figueira · Gil Vicente FC
90'🟨Antonio Espigares · Gil Vicente FC
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
12Shots7
4On target2
4Corners3
15Fouls18
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGil Vicente FCCasa Pia AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
box share (last 5)0.630.55
cards avg (last 5)2.201.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Cidade de Barcelos
Gustavo Varela · Gil Vicente FC
coach days422.00269.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.04
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.407.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.173.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.13
dominance (last 5)0.520.46
elo1574.261473.44
elo momentum (last 5)-24.49-27.70
eye test v10.21-1.13
eye trend v1-0.390.29
first sub minute (last 10)58.0050.90
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.620.68
league points46.0026.00
league rank6.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8063.00
possession avg (last 5)51.4034.60
rest days8.994.05
scorer concentration0.220.17
season ppg1.530.87
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.009.60
skill v10.33-2.07
solidity v10.35-0.26
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.102.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.60
squad age26.6827.66
state index-0.01-1.04
sterile dominance v10.17-1.68
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.250.30
threat rate (last 5)0.260.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.40
xg against avg (last 5)1.101.57
xg for avg (last 5)1.390.68