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FC Porto 2–0 CD Tondela

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 19, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pereira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win83%1.11
Draw13%7.00
CD Tondela win4%21.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto −253%1.80
CD Tondela −247%2.05

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.57
Under40%2.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'🟨Jakub Kiwior · FC Porto
21'🟨Maranhão · CD Tondela
35'🟨Rodrigo Mora · FC Porto
45'🟨Joe Hodge · CD Tondela
48'⚽Gabri Veiga · FC Porto
50'🟨Christian Marques · CD Tondela
65'⚽Victor Froholdt · FC Porto
80'🟨Siphephelo Sithole · CD Tondela
84'🟨Alberto Costa · FC Porto
90'🟨Gabri Veiga · FC Porto
90'🟨Rodrigo Conceição

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
22Shots5
8On target3
8Corners3
12Fouls11
4Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoCD Tondela
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.570.72
cards avg (last 5)2.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Do Dragão
· CD Tondela
90'🟨Hugo Félix · CD Tondela
coach days322.00292.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.08
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.912.95
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.16
dominance (last 5)0.610.40
elo1874.881414.88
elo momentum (last 5)-12.80-20.43
eye test v10.05-0.27
eye trend v1-0.240.00
first sub minute (last 10)55.3057.50
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.940.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.15
keeper form v10.810.73
league points76.0021.00
league rank1.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6078.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.80
rest days3.026.01
scorer concentration0.130.27
season ppg2.620.75
shot diff avg (last 5)4.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.208.80
skill v10.10-0.26
solidity v10.520.18
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.203.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.80
squad age27.3325.90
state index0.98-0.95
sterile dominance v1-0.470.00
threat rate (last 10)0.310.22
threat rate (last 3)0.340.18
threat rate (last 5)0.300.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.80
xg against avg (last 5)1.151.30
xg for avg (last 5)1.491.16