← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 19, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 2.85 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Espen Van Ee · FC Arouca |
| 44' | 🟨 | Javi Sánchez · FC Arouca |
| 46' | ⚽ | Tiago Esgaio · FC Arouca |
| 72' | 🟨 | Pedro Santos · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matías Rocha · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateo Flores · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Meireles · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 565.00 | 292.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1537.33 | 1452.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.65 | -0.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | 0.48 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.16 | 27.29 |
| state index | 0.16 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.49 |