← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Apr 18, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nogueira
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 44% | 2.15 |
| FC Alverca win | 29% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Rhaldney · FC Alverca |
| 67' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 78' | 🟨 | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
| 87' | 🟨 | Gabriel Veron · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 0.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| coach days |
| 1022.00 |
| 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1452.72 | 1522.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.83 | 18.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.75 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 25.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 0.46 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 26.19 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.48 |