← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 12, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 82% | 1.13 |
| Draw | 12% | 7.50 |
| CD Nacional win | 6% | 15.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −2.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −2.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under | 33% | 2.88 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Andreas Schjelderup · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 14' | ⚽ | Rafa Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 22' | 🟨 | Samuel Dahl · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 50' | 🟨 | Witi · CD Nacional |
| 56' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 58' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lenny Vallier · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Silva · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 15 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 3.20 |
| coach days | 285.00 | 1016.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.91 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1863.83 | 1454.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.86 | 2.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.50 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 66.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 5.89 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.60 | 25.60 |
| state index | 1.21 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.91 |