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CD Santa Clara 0–2 Rio Ave FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Apr 11, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Nogueira

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CD Santa Clara win55%1.68
Draw26%3.60
Rio Ave FC win19%4.75

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rio Ave FC −0.7551%1.88
CD Santa Clara −0.7549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.70
Over45%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

39'🟨Jakub Brabec · Rio Ave FC
50'⚽Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC
61'⚽ (og)Sidney Lima · Rio Ave FC
63'🟨Gustavo Mancha · Rio Ave FC
70'🟨Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC
75'🟨Gabriel Silva · CD Santa Clara
87'🟨Henrique Silva · CD Santa Clara

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
13Shots4
4On target3
3Corners3
18Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCD Santa ClaraRio Ave FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.200.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.350.60
cards avg (last 5)2.203.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio de São Miguel
coach days1015.00253.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.123.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.06
dominance (last 5)0.430.58
elo1523.741492.83
elo momentum (last 5)33.6022.68
eye test v1-0.820.50
eye trend v10.150.76
first sub minute (last 10)59.3057.70
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
keeper form v10.610.68
league points28.0030.00
league rank13.0012.00
matches since blank7.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)55.0048.00
rest days7.907.00
scorer concentration0.310.32
season ppg1.001.07
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.204.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.8014.80
skill v10.040.30
solidity v10.960.63
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
squad age27.7525.54
state index0.220.24
sterile dominance v10.61-0.47
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.35
threat rate (last 5)0.220.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.111.06
xg for avg (last 5)0.791.66