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FC Famalicão 1–1 Moreirense FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Apr 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: G. Correia

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão win65%1.42
Draw22%4.20
Moreirense FC win13%7.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão −154%1.78
Moreirense FC −146%2.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.85
Over49%1.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Rodrigo Alonso · Moreirense FC
11'🟨Sorriso · FC Famalicão
30'🟨Rodrigo Alonso · Moreirense FC
43'🟨Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão
43'🟨Alan · Moreirense FC
47'🟨Nile John · Moreirense FC
65'🟨Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão
71'⚽Pedro Santos · FC Famalicão
73'🟨Gil Dias · FC Famalicão
74'🟨Kiko · Moreirense FC
78'🟨Maracás

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
18Shots2
7On target1
13Corners0
15Fouls15
5Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC FamalicãoMoreirense FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.44—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.40—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.71—
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstadio Municipal de Famalicao
· Moreirense FC
90'🟨Ibrahima Ba · FC Famalicão
90'🟨André Ferreira · Moreirense FC
coach days495.00283.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.05
corner diff avg (last 5)2.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.132.01
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.11
dominance (last 5)0.530.38
elo1634.181533.61
elo momentum (last 5)26.04-26.61
eye test v10.48-0.96
eye trend v10.410.35
first sub minute (last 10)59.6060.00
form points (last 5)11.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.170.70
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v1—0.67
league points46.0035.00
league rank5.008.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.009.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.6083.60
possession avg (last 5)54.8048.20
rest days6.016.11
scorer concentration0.140.25
season ppg1.641.25
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.208.20
skill v10.52-0.14
solidity v11.21-0.51
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.402.80
squad age25.3926.91
state index0.83-0.68
sterile dominance v10.400.76
threat rate (last 10)0.210.14
threat rate (last 3)0.230.17
threat rate (last 5)0.250.17
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.621.54
xg for avg (last 5)1.370.71