← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Apr 11, 07:30 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 76% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.00 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 8% | 11.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal +1.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora +1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under | 35% | 2.70 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 13 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 2 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |