← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Apr 12, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: L. M. Branco Godinho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 64% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.50 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia +1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Porto +1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 32' | ⚽ (og) | Xeka · FC Porto |
| 51' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 51' | 🟨 | Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto |
| 72' | ⚽ | Victor Froholdt · FC Porto |
| 78' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days |
| 650.00 |
| 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1564.95 | 1882.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.61 | 7.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 52.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| league points | 37.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.07 | 3.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.41 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 27.48 |
| state index | -0.19 | 1.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.48 |