← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Apr 6, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 41% | 2.25 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| FC Arouca −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Xeka · GD Estoril Praia |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 23' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
| 32' | ⚽ | Yanis Begraoui · GD Estoril Praia |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jose Fontán · FC Arouca |
| 55' | ⚽ | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
| 56' | 🟨 | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
| 71' | 🟨 | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Puche · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ignacio de Arruabarrena · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Arouca | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Arouca |
| coach days | 552.00 | 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1530.60 | 1581.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.72 | 1.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 29.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 16.09 | 15.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.65 | 27.45 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.24 |