← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Apr 6, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: H. Carvalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 79% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.50 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 7% | 13.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +2 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica +2 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.48 |
| Under | 36% | 2.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 68' | ⚽ | Richard Ríos · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 78' | ⚽ | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Patrick Sequeira · Casa Pia AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 248.00 | 279.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 4.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1488.66 | 1895.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.36 | 3.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 16.98 | 16.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 2.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.95 | 1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.78 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 28.98 | 25.50 |
| state index | -0.47 | 1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.65 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.93 |