← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Apr 4, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Goncalves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 54% | 1.76 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 21% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Nacional −0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Luan Patrick · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 2' | ⚽ | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 45' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 71' | ⚽ | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alan Nuñez · CD Nacional |
| 81' | 🟨 | Jefferson Encada · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 86' | 🟨 | Daniel Júnior · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulinho Bóia · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 1008.00 | 277.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1441.30 | 1461.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.59 | -6.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 22.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 14.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.80 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.77 | 26.88 |
| state index | -0.84 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.61 |