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Sporting Clube de Braga 1–2 FC Porto

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 22, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win40%2.32
Draw30%3.10
Sporting Clube de Braga win30%3.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sporting Clube de Braga +0.2553%1.83
FC Porto +0.2547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.57
Over40%2.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Gustaf Lagerbielke · Sporting Clube de Braga
30'🟨Alan Varela · FC Porto
34'🟨Sikou Niakaté · Sporting Clube de Braga
51'🟨Gabri Veiga · FC Porto
54'🟨Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga
54'⚽ (pen)Rodrigo Zalazar · Sporting Clube de Braga
69'⚽William Gomes · FC Porto
73'🟨Pablo Rosario · FC Porto
74'🟨Terem Moffi · FC Porto
80'🟨Seko Fofana · FC Porto
80'⚽Seko Fofana · FC Porto

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots12
1On target3
3Corners5
12Fouls15
4Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSporting Clube de BragaFC Porto
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.710.59
cards avg (last 5)1.601.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Municipal de Braga
90'🟨Jean-Baptiste Gorby · Sporting Clube de Braga
coach days
264.00
294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.200.13
corner diff avg (last 5)2.80-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)2.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.103.18
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.05
dominance (last 5)0.510.64
elo1773.481887.68
elo momentum (last 5)3.5826.81
eye test v10.611.07
eye trend v10.420.10
first sub minute (last 10)62.4051.40
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.202.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.710.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.55
keeper form v10.73—
league points46.0069.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank1.0020.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)85.6079.40
possession avg (last 5)59.0046.40
rest days4.213.02
scorer concentration0.280.15
season ppg1.842.65
shot diff avg (last 5)0.806.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.6015.00
skill v11.050.34
solidity v10.800.73
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.705.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.40
squad age25.8627.31
state index0.931.49
sterile dominance v11.06-0.69
threat rate (last 10)0.190.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.31
threat rate (last 5)0.210.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60
xg against avg (last 5)0.780.80
xg for avg (last 5)1.601.97