← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ramalho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 62% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.00 |
| CD Nacional win | 15% | 6.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Famalicão −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.70 |
| Under | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Matheus Dias · CD Nacional |
| 40' | 🟨 | Gustavo Sá · FC Famalicão |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lenny Vallier · CD Nacional |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Ba · FC Famalicão |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Ba · FC Famalicão |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Júnior · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Famalicao |
| coach days | 475.00 | 994.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1622.73 | 1445.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.68 | -22.14 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.54 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 42.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 0.72 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.37 | 25.38 |
| state index | 0.66 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 0.96 |