← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 22, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Narciso
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Ferro · GD Estoril Praia |
| 41' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jakub Brabec · Rio Ave FC |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Jalen Blesa · Rio Ave FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | André Lacximicant · GD Estoril Praia |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Tamás Nikitscher · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tamblé Monteiro · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 8 |
| 11 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days |
| 629.00 |
| 233.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1588.98 | 1490.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.80 | 9.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | -0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.10 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.04 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.30 |