← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 21, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Goncalves
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca win | 36% | 2.57 |
| Moreirense FC win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Dylan Nandín · FC Arouca |
| 39' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 67' | ⚽ | Miguel Puche · FC Arouca |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pablo Gozálbez · FC Arouca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 263.00 | 536.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1558.92 | 1517.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.56 | -8.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| league points | 35.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 5.79 | 6.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.40 |
| solidity v1 | -0.86 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 23.50 |
| state index | -0.47 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.68 | 1.86 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.63 | 1.35 |