← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Thu, Apr 23, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 58% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.70 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 18% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Casa Pia AC +1 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Sporting Clube de Braga +1 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 8 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |