← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 15, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Macedo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.00 |
| Moreirense FC win | 6% | 15.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Gabri Veiga · FC Porto |
| 25' | ⚽ | Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto |
| 58' | 🟨 | Zaidu Sanusi · FC Porto |
| 81' | ⚽ | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Silva · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 3 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days |
| 287.00 |
| 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1875.09 | 1555.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.23 | -10.37 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| league points | 66.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 3.11 | 8.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.64 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 6.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.22 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 26.31 |
| state index | 1.35 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.63 |