← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 14, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Guelho
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 55% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
| FC Alverca win | 19% | 5.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Alverca −0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Gil Vicente FC −0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.70 |
| Over | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Agustín Moreira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Jonathan Buatu · Gil Vicente FC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rhaldney · FC Alverca |
| 52' | ⚽ | Sandro Lima · FC Alverca |
| 59' | 🟨 | Santi García · Gil Vicente FC |
| 71' | ⚽ | Agustín Moreira · Gil Vicente FC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Zé Carlos · Gil Vicente FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kaiky Naves · FC Alverca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | FC Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Cidade de Barcelos |
| coach days | 378.00 | 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1598.75 | 1498.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.03 | -5.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | -0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| league points | 41.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.10 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 1.00 |