← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 15, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 42% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 28% | 3.30 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Jakub Brabec · Rio Ave FC |
| 15' | 🟨 | Max Scholze · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 27' | ⚽ | Jalen Blesa · Rio Ave FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ole Pohlmann · Rio Ave FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jalen Blesa · Rio Ave FC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinho · CF Estrela da Amadora |
| 67' | 🟨 | Ennio Van Der Gouw · Rio Ave FC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ryan Guilherme · Rio Ave FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Eddy Doue · CF Estrela da Amadora |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | CF Estrela da Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 226.00 | 257.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.77 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1490.28 | 1455.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.07 | -13.48 |
| eye test v1 | -0.73 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| league points | 24.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 7.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.24 |
| solidity v1 | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.69 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.27 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.24 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.97 |