← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 15, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fonseca
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 41% | 2.25 |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 33% | 2.85 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| CD Nacional −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under | 42% | 2.25 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Felix Bacher · GD Estoril Praia |
| 16' | 🟨 | João Carvalho · GD Estoril Praia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jesús Ramírez · CD Nacional |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lucas João · CD Nacional |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ze Vitor · CD Nacional |
| 88' | 🟨 | Joel Robles · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Ruan · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chiheb Labidi · CD Nacional |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Madeira |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 988.00 | 622.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1453.45 | 1580.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.99 | -25.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.29 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | -0.13 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.63 | 26.63 |
| state index | -0.56 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.69 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.39 |