← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pinheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.10 |
| FC Porto win | 22% | 4.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Victor Froholdt · FC Porto |
| 26' | 🟨 | Pepê · FC Porto |
| 35' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 35' | 🟨 | Gabri Veiga · FC Porto |
| 40' | ⚽ | Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diogo Costa · FC Porto |
| 58' | 🟨 | Martim Fernandes · FC Porto |
| 69' | ⚽ | Andreas Schjelderup · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 78' | 🟨 | Alberto Costa · FC Porto |
| 81' | 🟨 | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 88' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 20 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio da Luz |
| 90' | 🟨 | António Silva · Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 250.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1890.78 | 1882.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.51 | -10.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.81 |
| league points | 58.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 8.97 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 2.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.20 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.99 |
| solidity v1 | 1.09 | 1.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 24.95 |
| state index | 1.23 | 1.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.51 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.84 |