← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 7, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Torres
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 38% | 2.45 |
| CD Nacional win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.20 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| CD Nacional +0 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over | 44% | 2.15 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Luís Semedo · Moreirense FC |
| 48' | 🟨 | Diogo Travassos · Moreirense FC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Léo Santos · CD Nacional |
| 67' | ⚽ | Miguel Baeza · CD Nacional |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leandro Santos · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gilberto Batista · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nile John · Moreirense FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liziero · CD Nacional |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas |
| coach days | 249.00 | 980.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1560.12 | 1448.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.27 | -20.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.10 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| league points | 34.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | 0.15 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.84 | 25.45 |
| state index | -0.39 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.73 | 1.02 |