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CF Estrela da Amadora 2–2 Gil Vicente FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 8, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: L. M. Branco Godinho

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gil Vicente FC win48%1.91
Draw29%3.20
CF Estrela da Amadora win23%4.10

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
CF Estrela da Amadora +0.551%1.88
Gil Vicente FC +0.549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.67
Over44%2.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽ (pen)Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
45'🟨Murilo Souza · Gil Vicente FC
48'🟨Paulo Moreira · CF Estrela da Amadora
54'⚽Jovane Cabral · CF Estrela da Amadora
65'🟨Facundo Cáseres · Gil Vicente FC
67'⚽Abraham Marcus · CF Estrela da Amadora
69'⚽Santi García · Gil Vicente FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
9Shots19
5On target6
0Corners8
16Fouls17
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCF Estrela da AmadoraGil Vicente FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.440.63
cards avg (last 5)2.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio José Gomes
1.20
coach days250.00372.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.601.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.802.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.422.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.18
dominance (last 5)0.450.66
elo1447.911601.37
elo momentum (last 5)-13.3023.37
eye test v1-0.670.71
eye trend v10.37-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)51.0063.10
form points (last 5)5.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.45
keeper form v10.640.50
league points24.0040.00
league rank13.005.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0083.40
possession avg (last 5)49.8053.00
rest days8.005.80
scorer concentration0.290.28
season ppg1.001.67
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.406.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.0014.40
skill v1-0.120.85
solidity v1-0.061.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.40
squad age27.4227.49
state index-0.480.48
sterile dominance v10.610.21
threat rate (last 10)0.200.28
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.340.85
xg for avg (last 5)0.781.92