← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Mon, Mar 9, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: H. Malheiro
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela win | 45% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.25 |
| Rio Ave FC win | 26% | 3.60 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| CD Tondela −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Rio Ave FC −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Andreas Ndoj · Rio Ave FC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jalen Blesa · Rio Ave FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Nelson Abbey · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gustavo Mancha · Rio Ave FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Bezerra · Rio Ave FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Tondela | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio João Cardoso |
| coach days | 251.00 | 220.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1435.16 | 1472.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.01 | -34.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 8.20 | 7.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.06 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.85 | 25.61 |
| state index | -0.02 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 0.66 |