← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Mar 6, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Nobre
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão win | 59% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 24% | 3.80 |
| FC Arouca win | 17% | 5.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Famalicão −0.75 | 54% | 1.75 |
| FC Arouca −0.75 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Ivan Barbero · FC Arouca |
| 82' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Pinheiro · FC Famalicão |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mathias De Amorim · FC Famalicão |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Famalicão | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Famalicao |
| coach days | 460.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1613.53 | 1526.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.83 | 33.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 4.99 | 7.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | 0.79 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.16 | 24.50 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.95 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.93 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.20 |