← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sat, Mar 7, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: B. J. Costa
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 55% | 1.66 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.70 |
| Casa Pia AC win | 20% | 4.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| GD Estoril Praia −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.85 |
| Under | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Domingos Jose Gabriel Bandeira · Casa Pia AC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Oluwakorede Osundina · Casa Pia AC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ricard Sánchez · GD Estoril Praia |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Holsgrove · GD Estoril Praia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio António Coimbra da Mota |
| coach days | 614.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1584.91 | 1497.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.93 | 18.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 7.99 | 6.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.89 | -1.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.09 | 27.10 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.98 | -1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.04 |