← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 1, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Verissimo
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC win | 35% | 2.65 |
| Moreirense FC win | 34% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia AC +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Moreirense FC +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Maracás · Moreirense FC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Cassiano · Casa Pia AC |
| 42' | 🟨 | David Sousa · Casa Pia AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dinis Pinto · Moreirense FC |
| 62' | ⚽ (pen) | Alan · Moreirense FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Rafael Brito · Casa Pia AC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alan · Moreirense FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Casa Pia AC | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior |
| coach days | 212.00 | 243.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| elo | 1497.03 | 1560.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.24 | -6.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| league points | 22.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 5.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.71 | -0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.89 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 26.76 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 0.51 |