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Rio Ave FC 0–0 FC Famalicão

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Mar 1, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Bessa

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão win52%1.76
Draw24%3.80
Rio Ave FC win24%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Famalicão +0.553%1.83
Rio Ave FC +0.547%2.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over53%1.80
Under47%2.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Marios Vrousai · Rio Ave FC
45'🟨Omar Richards · Rio Ave FC
45'🟨Sorriso · FC Famalicão
52'🟨Tom Van De Looi · FC Famalicão
83'🟨João Tomé · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Antonis Papakanellos · Rio Ave FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots10
4On target4
5Corners5
19Fouls15
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRio Ave FCFC Famalicão
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.570.65
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube
coach days
212.00
455.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.010.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.922.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.210.10
dominance (last 5)0.420.51
elo1470.151608.14
elo momentum (last 5)-56.21-1.11
eye test v1-0.88-0.24
eye trend v1-0.16-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)65.0059.80
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.51
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.540.69
league points20.0035.00
league rank15.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.6083.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2056.40
rest days7.006.01
scorer concentration0.400.16
season ppg0.871.52
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.80-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0010.60
skill v1-0.130.51
solidity v1-0.850.96
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.00
squad age25.6624.13
state index-1.320.14
sterile dominance v10.640.98
threat rate (last 10)0.190.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.60
xg against avg (last 5)1.630.95
xg for avg (last 5)0.561.16