← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Fri, Feb 27, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: I. Vasilica
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 78% | 1.17 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.25 |
| FC Arouca win | 7% | 13.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Arouca −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| FC Porto −1.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.73 |
| Under | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Oskar Pietuszewski · FC Porto |
| 70' | ⚽ | Naïs Djouahra · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Diogo Monteiro · FC Arouca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Boris Popović · FC Arouca |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | William Gomes · FC Porto |
| 90' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · FC Porto |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | FC Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| duration | REGULAR |
| stage | REGULAR_SEASON |
| venue | Estádio Do Dragão |
| coach days | 271.00 | 514.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.57 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1860.88 | 1521.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.68 | 34.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 62.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 86.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 4.93 | 6.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.70 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 1.09 |
| solidity v1 | 1.49 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 23.85 |
| state index | 1.15 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 1.30 |