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FC Porto 1–0 Rio Ave FC

← Primeira Liga 2025 · regular season · Sun, Feb 22, 08:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Silva

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Porto win84%1.10
Draw11%8.50
Rio Ave FC win5%17.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rio Ave FC −2.2551%1.88
FC Porto −2.2549%1.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.50
Under38%2.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'⚽Victor Froholdt · FC Porto
90'🟨Alan Varela · FC Porto
90'🟨Alberto Costa · FC Porto
90'🟨Karem Zoabi · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨Omar Richards · Rio Ave FC
90'🟨João Graça · Rio Ave FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots6
3On target1
10Corners1
14Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC PortoRio Ave FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.26
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.630.59
cards avg (last 5)1.601.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 3 more recorded facts — tap to expand
durationREGULAR
stageREGULAR_SEASON
venueEstádio Do Dragão
coach days266.00205.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.01
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)6.804.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.743.48
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.21
dominance (last 5)0.510.41
elo1859.461471.56
elo momentum (last 5)-2.76-59.82
eye test v10.70-0.87
eye trend v1-0.37-0.42
first sub minute (last 10)51.6064.80
form points (last 5)10.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.14
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.20
keeper form v10.790.50
league points59.0020.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank19.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.0014.00
matches since win0.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.8085.00
possession avg (last 5)57.4047.60
rest days7.216.01
scorer concentration0.190.40
season ppg2.680.91
shot diff avg (last 5)0.00-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.4010.20
skill v10.93-0.18
solidity v11.41-1.30
sot against avg (last 5)2.806.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.00
squad age26.1225.77
state index1.15-1.32
sterile dominance v10.720.49
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.220.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80
xg against avg (last 5)0.591.73
xg for avg (last 5)1.700.55